What is this?

The STH vs LTH Supply chart divides Kaspa's entire circulating supply into two categories based on a 155-day age threshold. Short-Term Holders (STH) are defined as coins that have been moved within the last 155 days, while Long-Term Holders (LTH) represent coins that have remained dormant for more than 155 days. This binary classification creates a clear picture of how supply is distributed between speculative participants and convicted holders.

The 155-day threshold originates from on-chain research pioneered by Glassnode for Bitcoin analysis. Statistical studies showed that coins held beyond approximately 155 days have a significantly lower probability of being spent in any given period — they cross a behavioral inflection point where holders transition from speculative positioning to long-term conviction. This threshold has been adopted as an industry standard across UTXO-based blockchains.

For Kaspa, this metric is particularly insightful given the network's relatively young age (launched November 2021) and rapid growth. Watching the balance between STH and LTH supply over time reveals the maturation of Kaspa's holder base and provides context for whether the market is in a distribution or accumulation regime.

How to use this data

When STH supply rises, it means previously dormant coins are being activated and moved. This typically occurs during bull market distribution phases when long-term holders sell into strength, or during periods of panic selling in sharp corrections. A rapid increase in STH supply is often a warning sign that experienced money is taking profits and transferring coins to newer, less experienced participants.

When LTH supply rises, it signals accumulation — coins are aging past the 155-day threshold as holders refuse to sell. This is the hallmark of bear market bottoms and early recovery phases. Steadily increasing LTH supply during a price decline indicates that holders are absorbing sell pressure and building positions for the long term, effectively removing supply from the active market.

Cross-overs between STH and LTH supply have historically signaled major regime changes. When LTH supply crosses above STH supply after a prolonged decline, it often marks the transition from distribution to accumulation. The inverse cross-over — STH supply overtaking LTH — can signal that a speculative frenzy has reached unsustainable levels. These cross-over events are rare but carry significant weight as macro cycle indicators.

How it's computed

Every UTXO in the Kaspa network is classified based on its age relative to the 155-day threshold. The age is determined by the DAA timestamp of the block that created the UTXO compared to the current time. All UTXOs younger than 155 days are summed into the STH category, and all UTXOs older than 155 days are summed into the LTH category. The two categories always add up to the total circulating supply.

The computation runs against our full UTXO set index, iterating over every unspent output to determine its age classification. This is sampled at regular intervals to produce a historical time series. The 155-day threshold is a fixed parameter matching the Bitcoin convention — it is not dynamically adjusted for Kaspa's faster block times, ensuring comparability with cross-chain on-chain research.

Note that this metric measures UTXO age, not account age. A holder who consolidates multiple UTXOs into one transaction will reset the age clock on those coins, temporarily shifting supply from the LTH to the STH category even though no change of ownership occurred. This creates short-term noise but washes out over longer time frames.